Bitcoin +44%, Ether +71%: the best Q3 since 2017 and what Uptober has in store

How much are Bitcoin and Ether up in Q3 2026?

The rally followed a rough first half: Bitcoin lost 22% in Q1 and another 14% in Q2, and on July 1 it dropped to $57,800 — its 2026 low. For Bitcoin, this is the best quarter since late 2024. The all-time high is still a long way off: Bitcoin is about 33% below its record of $126,200 from October 6, 2025, and Ether 46% below its $4,957 peak from August 24, 2025.

The quarter closes on September 30. To remain the best Q3 since 2017, Bitcoin just needs to hold above $73,300; to beat 2013 and become the second-best Q3 in history, above $82,400. Ether keeps its record if it closes the quarter above $2,620.

Bitcoin's best Q3 returns on record

Q3 is usually Bitcoin's sleepiest quarter: excluding 2026, it averages +6%, with a median of about +1%. This year's rally is a rare exception. You don't need a trading account to hold Bitcoin yourself: our crypto exchange works without sign-up, and the coins go straight to your wallet.

Ether's record Q3: why ETH is up 71%

• +71% for the quarter — Ether's best Q3 ever. The previous record was about 67% in 2025, and before that 59.5% in 2020. It still isn't Ether's best quarter overall: in early 2017, Ether rose 518%.
• Fund inflows. US spot ETH ETFs took in $690 million in the week of September 21–25 — their best week since late August.
• Tokenized stocks. On September 17, the SEC granted a five-year “innovation exemption” for trading tokenized shares of US companies on blockchain. Analysts name Ethereum as the main beneficiary.

Ether doesn't have to come from a trading platform either: you can buy ETH with USDT on TRON and get the coins straight to your wallet. Where the network itself is headed — see our breakdown of Vitalik Buterin's new post on the future of Ethereum.

Why is Bitcoin going up? What drove the rally

• ETF money. US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $2.39 billion in net inflows in the week of September 21–25 — the most since October 2025. Monday alone brought in $999 million, a 2026 record. After that week, year-to-date ETF flows turned positive again, at about $1 billion.
• Seven straight days of inflows. Since September 17, the funds haven't seen a single day of outflows — about $3 billion in total.
• A bounce off the bottom. After two losing quarters, buyers came back: July 1 marked the low of the year, and September 21 brought $87,400, an eight-month high.

What's weighing on Bitcoin: Treasury yields at a 19-year high

After the September 21 peak, Bitcoin slipped below $84,000 by Thursday, bottoming out around $82,900. The culprit is US government bonds:

• The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.18% on Thursday and hit 5.23% intraday on Friday — the highest since 2007. The 30-year yield climbed above 5.4%, the highest since 2004.
• Yields were pushed up by Brent crude above $100, the strongest US business activity since July 2021 and rising inflation expectations.
• On September 16, the Fed raised rates to 3.75–4.00% — its first hike since 2023. The market is pricing in a more than 70% chance of another hike in October.

Why it matters for crypto: when safe bonds pay more than 5% a year, risk assets have a harder time winning investors' money.

Uptober: what Bitcoin's October history says

Uptober is a playful blend of “up” and “October.” The month earned the nickname because Bitcoin rises in October more often than it falls. Here's how Bitcoin closed every October since 2013, according to CoinGlass:

• 10 green Octobers out of 13. The average return is +19.9% and the median +14.7% — the highest median of any month of the year.
• Three red Octobers: 2014, 2018 and 2025. October 2025 (−3.7%) snapped a streak of six green Octobers in a row.
• Excluding the outlier year 2013, the picture is more modest: +16.5% on average, with a median of +12.7%.
• After a strong Q3 — above 15% in 2013, 2017, 2020 and 2021 — October was green every time, averaging +44%. But there are only four such cases.

Q4 as a whole has historically been the best quarter, too: a median of +47.7%, with gains in 8 years out of 13. That said, Q4 2025 closed down 23%.

Will Uptober happen in 2026? Why this time could be different

• A different economic climate. The Fed is raising rates and the 10-year yield is above 5% — a backdrop almost no previous October has seen.
• Plenty of unrealized profit. CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno notes that holders' average unrealized profit stands at 33%, the highest since December 2024, while profit-taking is at a 2026 record. That combination often shows up before a rally fades or a correction hits.
• The key zone is $84,000–85,000. According to Glassnode, many long-term holders bought in this range. If it holds, the path to $96,700 is open; deeper support sits around $77,000.
• There are optimists, too. Vetle Lunde of K33 believes the cycle bottom is already in.

Statistics are not a promise: 13 years is a small sample, and October 2025 already proved it.

Key dates to watch in October 2026: CPI and the Fed meeting

How to buy Bitcoin and Ether without an exchange

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