The September curse is broken: Bitcoin closes Q3 up 42.6% as the odds of a Fed rate hike are cut in half

Q3 2026 by the numbers

Bitcoin opened Q3 at $58,625 on July 1 and closed it at $83,624 on September 30. That's +42.6% on Binance monthly candles, while CoinGlass counted +42.71%. Ether rose even more over the same three months.

Bitcoin has had only one better Q3: 2017, when the price climbed 80.4%. Second place used to belong to 2013 and its +40.6%, and now it goes to 2026. Looking at all quarters, not just Q3s, Bitcoin last posted a stronger gain in late 2024.

None of the quarter's three months closed in the red. July brought 7.3%, August 25.0% and September 6.4%. By CoinDesk's count, it was the first time since 2012 that Bitcoin strung together three green months from July through September.

Ether rewrote its own history. Its +70.9% is the best Q3 on record, topping the previous high of about 67% set in 2025. CoinDesk also calls it Ether's best quarter since 2021. Ether gained 32.5% in August and 8.9% in September, outpacing Bitcoin both times. If you hold Bitcoin and want to add some Ether, you can swap BTC to ETH without an exchange account. At VertEXchange there's no sign-up for that: you enter your own wallet address, and the Ether goes straight to it.

How Bitcoin broke the September curse

September has a bad reputation among traders. According to CoinGlass, from 2013 to 2025 it brought Bitcoin an average of about −3.8%, making it the weakest month of the year. Worse, since 2013 every green August for Bitcoin had been followed by a red September. CoinDesk pointed out the pattern on September 29, when September was already heading for a rare green close.

Percentages in the table are based on Binance monthly candles, and the years with a green August and a red September come from CoinDesk. In 2026, there was no correction after August's +25.0%, and Bitcoin added another 6.4% in September. For the first time since 2013, a green August carried over into a green September.

What moved the market

More than half of the quarter's gain came in August. In that one month, Bitcoin climbed from $62,888 to $78,581, and Ether added 32.5%.

September put the rally to the test. On September 16, the Fed raised its rate to 3.75–4.00%, the first hike since 2023, and by the end of the month US Treasury yields had climbed to multi-year highs. Bitcoin and Ether still closed the month higher, and on the last day of the quarter, inflation data shook up the market.

The Fed, PCE inflation and Treasury yields

After the September hike, the market started bracing for a second one at the October 27–28 meeting. The September 30 data cooled those expectations. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% month over month in August against a forecast of 0.3%, and 3.0% year over year instead of the expected 3.3%. After the release, the odds of an October rate hike were cut in half.

On the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, the odds that the Fed holds rates in October stand at about 66%.

Bitcoin reacted fast. Within an hour of the release, it jumped about 2% to nearly $85,500, but by the daily close it was back at $83,600. US Treasury yields never came down that day. The 30-year yield touched 5.612%, its highest since June 2002, and the 10-year hit 5.293%, the highest since June 2007.

That's a serious headwind for crypto. When US government bonds pay more than 5% a year, risk assets have a harder time attracting investor money, and the soft inflation reading on September 30 wasn't enough to change that. On the morning of October 1, Bitcoin was trading around $83,600–84,200, and the Fear & Greed Index stood at 71, in “Greed” territory.

What comes next

Before the Fed decides, the market will get two more major US reports, and each of them could swing the odds of a rate hike again, in either direction.

A strong labor market and hot inflation usually add to the case for a hike, while weak numbers favor a pause. Bond yields will get just as much attention, since on September 30 they were what kept Bitcoin from holding its jump after the good news.

The crypto community has long called October “Uptober.” In our September 27 article on Bitcoin's October performance by year, we looked at how Bitcoin has closed the month in the past and what tended to follow a strong Q3. Past Octobers guarantee nothing, and we won't try to guess where the price ends the month.

How to buy Bitcoin and Ether without an exchange

You don't need an exchange to buy Bitcoin or Ether, just your own wallet. If your savings are in stablecoins, at VertEXchange you can exchange USDT to Bitcoin without registration or buy ETH with USDT on TRON, and the coins arrive straight at your address.

Frequently asked questions

How much did Bitcoin rise in Q3 2026?

Bitcoin rose 42.6% by Binance monthly candles, from $58,625 at the July 1 open to $83,624 at the September 30 close. CoinGlass counted +42.71%. Only Q3 2017, with its 80.4% gain, was better in Bitcoin's history, and 2013's +40.6% has slipped to third place.

How much did Ether rise in Q3 2026?

Ether gained 70.9% according to Binance, going from $1,572 to $2,686. That's its best Q3 ever; the previous record was about 67% in 2025. CoinDesk also rates it as Ether's best quarter since 2021.

Why is September considered a bad month for Bitcoin?

Because of its track record. According to CoinGlass, from 2013 to 2025 September brought Bitcoin an average of about −3.8%, worse than any other month. On top of that, since 2013 every green August had been followed by a red September — in 2013, 2017, 2020 and 2021. In 2026, the rule failed for the first time. After a 25.0% August, September added another 6.4%.

Will the Fed raise rates in October 2026?

The decision will be made at the October 27–28 meeting, and no one knows the outcome in advance. After the September 30 PCE inflation data, CME FedWatch puts the odds of a hike at 37%, while Kalshi and Polymarket have them at about 35% and give a pause about 66%. A week earlier, the odds of a hike were about 70%. Before the meeting, the September jobs data (October 2) and CPI inflation (October 14) will come out, and they could shift these estimates.

How do Fed interest rates affect Bitcoin?

The higher the rate, the more safe dollar assets such as government bonds pay, and the harder it is for risk assets, Bitcoin included, to attract money. The Fed's rate is now 3.75–4.00% after the September 16 hike, and the 30-year US Treasury yield touched 5.612% on September 30. That same day, soft inflation sent Bitcoin to nearly $85,500, but yields didn't fall, and by the close the price was back at $83,600.

What will happen to Bitcoin in October?

No one knows where the price will be at the end of October, and we don't make forecasts. The market will be watching three dates: US jobs data on October 2, September CPI inflation on October 14 and the Fed meeting on October 27–28. The other thing to watch is US Treasury yields, which hit multi-year highs on September 30. On the morning of October 1, Bitcoin was at about $83,600–84,200, and the Fear & Greed Index read 71, “Greed.”