Brazil's election and crypto: which rules already apply and what could change after the vote

First-round results

According to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), with 99.96% of tally sheets counted, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro came first with 47.04% of the valid votes, or 56.1 million. Lula got 45.15%, or 53.8 million; the gap is about 2.25 million votes, or 1.89 percentage points. Nobody passed 50%, so the two meet in a runoff on October 25, and the remaining tally sheets cannot change that.

The new president takes office on January 5, 2027: starting with this election, inauguration day has moved from January 1. For crypto, the first round changed nothing: the Central Bank rules, licensing deadlines and reporting apply whoever wins, and what remains open is taxes, covered below.

What the polls showed on the eve of the vote

To win in the first round, a candidate needs more than half of the valid votes, meaning blank and spoiled ballots are not counted. None of the final polls showed anyone with that kind of lead:

Both polls have a margin of error of two percentage points, so the runoff is a statistical tie. As recently as October 1, Datafolha had Lula at 45% against 40% in the first round. The result went against the polls: Lula got about what they gave him, while Flávio did 2 to 5 points better.

Why the crypto market is watching the vote

On September 23, Chainalysis ranked Brazil first in its 2026 Global Crypto Adoption Index. Crypto volume in the country for the year to June 30, 2026 reached $252.5 billion, the largest market in Latin America. Most of what Brazilians buy is the dollar in token form: according to the Central Bank, stablecoins made up about 98% of residents' crypto purchases in the first quarter of 2026, and Central Bank governor Gabriel Galípolo has put the stablecoin share of domestic flows at roughly 90%. We look at the numbers in more detail in our piece on why Latin America runs on the digital dollar.

For many Brazilians, USDT is a way to keep savings in a hard currency: some buy it on a local exchange, others use a crypto exchange so the coins land straight in their own wallet. Most often it is USDT on TRON, the main network for dollar tokens in the region, and you can, for example, exchange Bitcoin for USDT TRC20 there. That is why the key election question for the market is how the government will treat stablecoins.

What already applies regardless of the vote

The main rules come from the Central Bank, which has been autonomous since 2021: Galípolo's term as governor runs until the end of 2028 and does not coincide with the presidential term.

• Since February 2, 2026, Central Bank resolutions 519, 520 and 521 have been in force. Crypto service providers are licensed, and buying, selling and exchanging stablecoins, as well as transfers to and from self-custody wallets, count as foreign exchange operations. The provider must identify the owner of a personal wallet and check where the coins come from and where they go.
• Since July 1, 2026, crypto transactions are reported to the tax authority on the new DeCripto form. Foreign platforms serving Brazilians must report too.
• Since October 1, 2026, crypto service providers report every transfer of $10,000 or more to or from a personal wallet to the financial intelligence unit COAF. The rule does not cap the amount; details are in our article on how Brazil will report transfers to self-custody wallets.
• Also since October 1, Resolution 561 applies: companies that make international payments under the simplified eFX scheme cannot settle with foreign partners in crypto. The ban does not affect individuals.

Calendar for the coming weeks

Between the two rounds and right after the runoff, the market has several deadlines of its own:

The November 6 deadline was set by Resolution 589 of September 23; before that it coincided with October 30. In mid-September the newspaper Valor reported that the Central Bank had received only five applications, and one had already been rejected. According to industry outlets, some platforms have announced they are winding down service for retail clients, so anyone keeping coins on an exchange should find out its plans in advance.

Crypto taxes: what is still open

Brazil still uses the old scheme: crypto sales of up to R$35,000 a month are tax-exempt, and gains above that are taxed at a progressive rate of 15% to 22.5%. The Lula government tried to change this with provisional measure MP 1303, which set a flat 17.5% rate and scrapped the exemption, but Congress never voted on it and the measure expired on October 8, 2025.

The second open question is a 3.5% IOF tax on purchases of crypto and stablecoins. The tax authority drafted the proposal, but in March 2026 the new finance minister Dario Durigan, who replaced Fernando Haddad, postponed the public consultation. According to Reuters, he wanted to avoid contentious tax issues before the election, and the consultation may slip to the start of the new presidential term. The proposal has not been withdrawn. While taxes stay as they are, it makes sense to spread dollar savings in tokens across networks so you do not depend on a single infrastructure: for example, you can move USDT from TRON to the Ethereum network.

What we know about the candidates' positions

According to a count by the Spanish outlet Merca2, none of the six candidates has publicly explained what they would do about the crypto industry, and only Renan Santos answered a detailed crypto questionnaire.

Lula. His position shows in what his government has done: MP 1303 and the IOF proposal both came from the Finance Ministry. The stablecoin rules were adopted by the Central Bank, which acts autonomously; Galípolo has led it since January 1, 2025, after being nominated by Lula.

Flávio Bolsonaro. The platform he filed with the TSE has no separate section on crypto, stablecoins or virtual assets; overall it promises less bureaucracy. We found no public statements by the senator on crypto.

On October 4 the country also elected the entire Chamber of Deputies and two thirds of the Senate. The new Congress convenes in February 2027, and tax changes have to pass through it, so its makeup matters to the market as much as the name of the president.

What could change under each outcome

• Whatever the outcome, the Central Bank rules, the October 30 and November 6 deadlines and DeCripto stay in force.
• If Lula wins, his government still has unfinished business: the IOF on stablecoins, whose consultation was put off until after the election, and the flat tax rate on gains from MP 1303.
• If Flávio wins, the economic team and the tax agenda will be rebuilt from scratch, but the candidate has no crypto program yet. The Central Bank leadership stays the same until the end of 2028.

How to ride out the uncertainty

Uncertainty over taxes and platforms will last at least until November. A few simple steps make you less exposed to it:

• Keep your savings in your own wallet. A balance on an exchange depends on its license and its decisions, while the keys to a personal wallet depend only on you. The difference is explained in our guide to custodial vs non-custodial wallets.
• Do not keep everything with one issuer on one network. You can hold part of your USDT as USDC and part on another network with cheap transfers.
• Handle taxes under your own country's rules. Provider reporting is not going away, and careful records of your trades will spare you awkward questions.

VertEXchange has no accounts: no sign-up, no email, no phone number. You choose the coin and network, enter your wallet address and send your coins to the deposit address you are given, and the exchanged coins go straight to you. You can pick a floating or a fixed rate. This is how you can swap USDT TRC20 for USDC on Ethereum, and if you hold USDT on Solana, you can buy SOL with USDT TRC20 to cover network fees.

FAQ

Who won the Brazil election?

Nobody yet. In the first round on October 4, Flávio Bolsonaro won 47.04% of the valid votes and Lula 45.15%. The winner will be decided in the runoff on October 25.

Will crypto rules in Brazil change right after the election?

No. The Central Bank rules are already in force, and the new president takes office on January 5, 2027.

Can I keep USDT in my own wallet in Brazil?

Yes. Individuals can buy, hold and transfer stablecoins; transfers of $10,000 or more between a crypto service provider and a personal wallet are included in the provider's report.