Bitcoin after the US jobs report: a jump to $87,000, a reversal and $433 million in liquidations
On October 2, the US reported just 29,000 new jobs for September against an expected 90,000, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. The market decided the Fed would not hike rates again in October, and bitcoin jumped to almost $87,100. A day later it was back at $84,600, and crypto liquidations reached $433.6 million, three quarters of them hitting traders who had bet on a rise. Here is why bad jobs news pushes bitcoin higher and how leverage turns a good day into a loss.
What the report showed
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September employment report on Friday, October 2. The economy added just 29,000 nonfarm jobs, while economists had expected about 90,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.
Earlier months turned out weaker than first reported, too. August was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, and July went from a small gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000 jobs. Wages rose 0.1% for the month against a 0.3% forecast, and 3.0% over the year instead of the expected 3.2%.
| Indicator | Forecast | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| New jobs, September | about 90,000 | 29,000 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 4.2% |
| Monthly wage growth | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Annual wage growth | 3.2% | 3.0% |
Why bad jobs news pushed bitcoin higher
The link is the Fed's interest rate. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023, and the market was bracing for a second hike at the next meeting on October 27-28. Higher rates make the dollar and bonds more attractive, while risk assets, bitcoin included, tend to lose value. A weak labor market is the strongest argument for the Fed to pause.
That is how the market read the report. According to CME FedWatch data cited by CoinDesk, the odds of a rate hike on October 28 stood at 25% on Friday morning and dropped to 13% after the release. On the prediction market Kalshi, CNBC reports, they fell from almost 70% to 18% in a week. Traders still keep a December hike on the table.
Bonds moved with expectations. The 10-year US Treasury yield, which had reached 5.34% the day before, fell to 5.15%. Gold gained more than 1%, the dollar weakened against major currencies, and Nasdaq futures rose about 1.2%.
Bitcoin opened October 2 at roughly $84,850 and climbed to almost $87,100 in the first hours after the report. Part of that move came from the bears themselves: traders who had opened short positions betting on a drop were force-closed, and closing a short means buying, which pushes the price even higher.
Why the rally did not hold
By Friday evening, bitcoin had given back about $2,000 and slipped to $85,300, CoinDesk notes. Some traders took profits. The 10-year yield quickly bounced back to 5.26% and ended the day higher than it started. The market knows the Fed watches prices as well as jobs, and the next inflation report comes out on October 14.
On Saturday, October 3, bitcoin traded around $84,600, 1.6% lower than a day earlier. The 24-hour low was about $83,900, according to The Crypto Times. The whole Friday rally was gone within a day, and the price was back where it started.
What liquidations are and how leverage turns a good day into a loss
A futures trader can use leverage: put up, say, $1,000 of collateral and open a $10,000 position. A 1% price move then changes the collateral by 10%. If the price moves about 10% against the position, the collateral runs out and the exchange closes the trade itself. That is a liquidation: the trader's money is wiped out completely or almost completely, and the position is sold at market. There is no leverage on our cryptocurrency exchange: you swap one coin for another and receive it in your own wallet.
On Friday, this worked both ways. First, the price shot up and knocked out the shorts. Then it reversed, and the longs took the hit, especially those who bought with leverage at the peak near $87,000. Each forced sale pushes the price further and hits the next group of traders.
According to CoinGlass, $433.6 million in positions were liquidated across the crypto market in the 24 hours to Saturday morning. Of that, $321.8 million, or 74%, came from longs and only $111.8 million from shorts. More than 100,000 traders were liquidated. Ether accounted for over $105 million, bitcoin for about $104 million, and the largest single liquidation was $4.5 million on the ETH/USDT pair on Binance. Without leverage, the same pair is just a purchase: you can buy ETH with USDT on TRON, and there is nothing to liquidate.
In the end, someone who simply held bitcoin through the whole day ended up roughly where they started. Someone who bought with leverage on the news could have lost all their collateral within hours, even though the price barely moved overall.
ETF flows: a streak broken and resumed
In the background were flows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. According to SoSoValue, a nine-day inflow streak that brought about $3 billion into the funds ended on September 30, when $148.7 million left spot bitcoin ETFs. We covered this when we looked at why Citigroup raised its bitcoin price target to $113,000.
The pause was short. On October 1, the funds were back to net inflows of about $103 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone taking in $195.6 million while Fidelity's FBTC lost about $61 million. Data for October 2 had not yet been published by Saturday morning.
The calendar for the coming weeks
For bitcoin, the next few weeks will depend on the Fed and the data it watches.
- October 14: the September CPI inflation report. High prices could revive talk of a rate hike despite the weak labor market.
- October 27-28: the Fed meeting, with the rate decision announced on October 28.
- December: another meeting, where the market still allows for a hike.
Even so, bitcoin closed September higher, although the Fed raised rates that month. We wrote separately about how bitcoin closed Q3 2026 up 42%.
What this means if you hold bitcoin as savings
Friday is a good illustration of the difference between owning coins and betting on their moves. Over two days, the price rose almost 3% and came back down. For someone holding bitcoin in their own wallet, that is ordinary noise. For someone trading with leverage, the same day could have ended with the loss of their collateral.
If bitcoin is savings for you rather than trading, it helps to look at days like this calmly and think first about storage. Coins on an exchange are yours only as long as the exchange works and does not block withdrawals. It is worth understanding the difference between a custodial and a non-custodial wallet and deciding in advance how to store your seed phrase safely so you never lose access to your coins.
If you keep savings in stablecoins and have decided to move part of them into bitcoin, on VertEXchange you can buy bitcoin with USDT TRC20 without registration: the coins go straight to your wallet address, with no account and nothing held by us.
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