Citigroup raises its bitcoin forecast to $113,000: why the bank changed its mind and what bank forecasts are worth

What Citigroup changed

On October 1, Citigroup sent investors a note with new 12-month targets for the two largest cryptocurrencies. According to Yahoo Finance, the bank raised its bitcoin forecast from $82,000 to $113,000 and its ether forecast from $2,240 to $3,028. The new bitcoin target is 38% above the previous one, and the ether target is 35% higher.

Measured against current prices, the gap is smaller. On the morning of October 1, bitcoin traded at around $83,800 and ether at around $2,695. By crypto.news's count, bitcoin needs to rise about 35% to reach Citi's target, while ether needs only about 12%.

The forecast has a 12-month horizon. In other words, the bank is saying where it thinks prices could be roughly a year from now, not by the end of October.

Why the bank changed its mind

In the note, Citi gives three reasons: the crypto market has become more active, the macro environment is more supportive, and money is once again flowing into crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Let's take them one at a time.

Money is back in ETFs

In the summer, the picture looked very different. By mid-July, US spot bitcoin ETFs were in net outflows of $5.8 billion year to date: more money was leaving the funds than coming in. By the end of September, the balance had turned positive, at about $800 million. In the week of September 21 to 25 alone, according to crypto.news, bitcoin ETFs took in $2.39 billion and ether ETFs $689.8 million.

Looking ahead, the bank expects about $5 billion of inflows into crypto over 12 months. That is slower than before, but steadier. Citi expects the money to come through financial advisers and brokers who gradually raise the share of bitcoin in their clients' portfolios. An individual buyer doesn't need a broker or a trading account to add bitcoin to a portfolio: with a crypto exchange without registration, the coins go straight to their own wallet.

The market has come alive

September is usually seen as bitcoin's worst month, but in 2026 it ended up 6.4%, and the whole third quarter gained about 43%, according to Rio Times. We wrote separately about how bitcoin closed September in the green and broke the September curse.

On September 30, bitcoin closed at $83,554, almost flat for the day, after trading between $82,928 and $85,600. The Fear and Greed Index stood at 74 on October 1, according to KuCoin, which is greed territory.

The macro picture has softened

The latest US inflation data came in better than expected. Core PCE, personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy, rose 3.0% year over year in August against a forecast of 3.3%. The headline index rose 3.4% against a forecast of 3.7%. After these numbers, market-implied odds of a Fed rate hike in October fell to about 37% from 51%, Rio Times reports. The lower the chance of more expensive money, the more comfortable risk assets feel, and the market counts crypto among them.

What stands in the way

There are plenty of reasons for caution too.

The first is that ETF inflows are uneven. A nine-day streak of inflows that brought about $3 billion into the funds ended on September 30. That day, $148.7 million left bitcoin ETFs, $125.6 million of it from Fidelity's FBTC fund, as Rio Times and Bitcoin.com News report. One day of outflows doesn't decide anything, but it shows how quickly money in the funds can turn around.

The second is expensive US debt. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.29% and the 30-year 5.63%, the highest in decades. When safe bonds pay that much, some money goes there instead of into risk assets. Softer inflation hasn't pushed yields down so far.

The third is regulation. On September 15, the US Senate failed to pass the CLARITY Act on crypto market rules: 49 votes in favor, 50 against, with 60 needed to pass. The clear rules that big players had been counting on still don't exist in the US.

Market sentiment adds to this. A Fear and Greed reading of 74 means buyers are already fairly optimistic, and that kind of mood can also come before a pullback.

How Citi changed its forecasts throughout the year

The most telling part of this story is the history of the forecasts themselves. According to crypto.news, Citi set four different targets for bitcoin and ether in 2026.

The target followed the market. While prices were falling, the bank cut its forecast twice, and the third bitcoin target, $82,000, almost matched where the price is now. The market rose, and the forecast rose with it. The new $113,000 target is nearly identical to the second one, $112,000, which the bank itself later abandoned.

That is how forecasts from any bank work, not just Citi's. Analysts take the data available today: ETF flows, inflation, interest rates, market sentiment. When the data changes, so does the target. That's why it helps to read a forecast as a reference point: it shows what analysts at a major bank believe right now. It is not a promise of where the price will be in a year, and over that year the bank may well revise it again in either direction.

We covered what to expect from the market in the coming weeks in our piece on what Uptober 2026 could bring after a strong third quarter, with October statistics by year and the dates worth watching.

What this means for coin holders

Citi's forecast is a reason to understand what the current rally rests on, not a reason to buy or sell. Everyone makes their own money decisions, based on their own goals and risks.

One thing doesn't depend on any forecast. Coins sitting on an exchange effectively belong to the exchange until you withdraw them. If you hold crypto for the long term, learn the difference between a custodial and a non-custodial wallet and why it's better to keep your keys yourself.

If you were already planning to move stablecoins into bitcoin, on VertEXchange you can buy bitcoin with USDT TRC20 and get the coins straight to your own address. And if you want to keep part of your holdings in ether, you can swap BTC to ETH without an exchange account, also straight to your wallet.

FAQ

What is Citigroup's bitcoin price forecast for the next year?

On October 1, 2026, Citigroup set a 12-month bitcoin target of $113,000. The previous target was $82,000. From the October 1 price of about $84,000, that is roughly +35%.

Why did Citigroup raise its bitcoin forecast?

The bank named three reasons: the crypto market has become more active, the macro environment is more supportive, and money is flowing into bitcoin ETFs again. By the end of September, the funds were in positive territory for the year, even though in mid-July they had been in outflows of $5.8 billion.

What is Citi's ether forecast?

The 12-month ether target is $3,028, up from $2,240. From the October 1 price of about $2,700, that is roughly +12%.

How many times did Citi change its bitcoin forecast in 2026?

Over the year, the bank had four targets: $143,000, $112,000, $82,000 and now $113,000. The forecast was cut twice as the market fell and raised on October 1 after the rally.

Can you trust bank forecasts for bitcoin?

A bank forecast is an estimate based on today's data, and it changes along with the market. The history of Citi's targets in 2026 shows this well. It's useful to know what analysts think, but relying on their numbers alone when making decisions about your own money is not a good idea.

What could stop bitcoin from reaching $113,000?

Uneven ETF inflows, high US bond yields and regulatory uncertainty. On September 30, a nine-day streak of bitcoin ETF inflows ended with $148.7 million in outflows, the 10-year US Treasury yield stands at 5.29%, and the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate in September.

How much money does Citi expect to flow into crypto over the year?

About $5 billion of inflows over 12 months. The bank expects the money to arrive more slowly than before but more steadily: through advisers and brokers who gradually raise the share of bitcoin in their clients' portfolios.